February 2012 MLB Events
MLB News
Focus on powerful MLB betting system
2010-06-23
Despite squaring off against Tigers’ ace Justin Verlander on Tuesday, the Mets erupted for 14 runs on 16 hits. The damage wasn’t all done on Verlander though, as the Detroit bullpen yielded nine of the runs itself. Because of that latter fact, New York comes into Wednesday’s contest backed by a powerful FoxSheets Super Situation. The host Mets are favorites of just -115 according to Sportsbook.com, but that price could escalate if bettors get their hands on this system.
The angle in focus is based squarely upon the recent performance of the bullpens of both teams. It reads as follows:
Play Against - Road teams (DETROIT) - after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs against opponent with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games. (64-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.3%, +39.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -115.7
The average score in these games was: Team 5.2, Opponent 3.7 (Average run differential = +1.4)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0, +3.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-10, +17.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (148-92, +25.6 units).
As you can see, this system is already 3-0 for 2010, producing 3.1 units of profit in just three games. Over the last five seasons, the return on investment had you wagered every qualifying game would have been an astronomical 46.7%. In these days of economic uncertainty, how many fund managers would kill for a return like that!
Wednesday’s starting pitcher matchup shows the Tigers going with Jeremy Bonderman vs. the Mets’ R.A. Dickey.
Dickey (5-0, 2.82 ERA), recalled from Triple-A Buffalo on May 19, has been a major surprise for New York, and he'll take the mound looking to become the first starter to win his first six decisions with the club.
The 35-year-old knuckleballer is also vying to become the first Met to win six starts in a row since Mike Pelfrey did it from June 16-July 13, 2008.
The Mets are second in the NL East, 1 1/2 games behind first-place Atlanta.
Dickey is 2-2 with a 4.69 ERA in 12 games - five starts - versus the Tigers. He lost his last appearance against them July 3, giving up four runs and nine hits in three innings of relief for Minnesota.
The Tigers have dropped nine of 12 on the road, and the staff has a 6.36 ERA in that stretch.
Bonderman (3-4, 4.06) is 1-2 with a 6.03 ERA in six road starts, but comes off a solid outing and will now try to win a second consecutive start for the first time since a personal eight-game winning streak from April 30-June 20, 2007.
Bonderman is 1-1 with a 7.36 ERA in two starts against the Mets
The StatFox Power Line shows the Mets should be a favorite of -131, perhaps indicating a slight under-pricing by Sportsbook.com. For those interested in the total, that number shows OV8.5 +105.
Starting time for Wednesday’s game is set for 7:10 PM ET.
Texas trying to buck the system in New York2009-08-26There had been a great deal of speculation the Texas Rangers were perfectly positioned to steal a game from the New York Yankees in the opener on forums and chat sites catering to sports wagering talk on Tuesday. The belief was from underdog and value players, the Yankees would be flat after a big series win in Boston and Joba Chamberlain had not been very effective of late, making Texas a delicious choice at +185 on the money line. (Be sure to check the latest information on all the MLB games by visiting the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages.)
New York looked anything but flat taking a 4-0 lead in the bottom of the first inning. This Texas team is a little different from the past, not wilting under the heat and humidity the Lone Star State brings this time of year and they kept battling, earning a 10-5 lead and almost gave it away, with New York scoring four runs in the bottom of the ninth, to come up just short at 10-9.
High scoring games are nothing new at the new Yankees Stadium, where the average score totals 10.3 runs per game. The Rangers will attempt to win the series tonight on ESPN2 at 7:05 Eastern and possibly further close the gap in the AL West with Los Angeles with another victory.
Texas will have New York’s full attention, as the Yankees lost for just the 19th time in 60 games (best in baseball) in the Bronx this season. The Rangers will be in virtually the same exact position as last night, being +185 underdogs according to Sportsbook.com.
Texas is feeling spry after defeating the Yanks and will send 22-year-old left-hander Derek Holland (7-7, 4.72 ERA) to the mound. The rookie will face an intimidating New York lineup that punishes left-hand pitchers, sporting a 28-14 record and he’s been rocked for eight runs in 6 1/3 innings against the Bronx Bombers this season. Holland has found a groove in last three starts, with 3-0 record and 1.29 ERA; expect the Yankees to test him.
Andy Pettitte (10-6, 4.25) will take the ball for Joe Girardi’s club, seeking a third straight win. Pettitte and his teammates will go after a fifth consecutive triumph when he’s been the starter. Though the veteran left-hander did not have his best stuff last Friday against Boston in wild 20-11 win (seven runs allowed in five innings), prior to that he had 2.61 ERA in last five starts.
By all appearances Texas should have another shot as big underdog, until this sobering system is unveiled.
Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 after allowing nine runs or more against opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more.
This system is a proven winner and consistent. Since 1997, the record is 184-48, 79.3 percent and over the last five years has been equally as steady with 64-17 (79 percent) mark. What makes this system work is teams involved in high scoring affairs and positioned as large underdogs typically don’t respond well in next contest and this is acknowledged with teams like Texas losing by 2.5 runs per game.
Can Texas win tonight, sure, is it a good idea to place a wager on them, after reading to this point, you decide.
MLB: Who said Fish can't fly?2009-04-20The Florida Marlins are the best team in baseball after two weeks of the regular season and they have shown the game isn't over until all 27 outs have been registered and sometimes beyond. Over the weekend, Florida showed their resolve, granted it was Washington, and the Fish never quit. The Marlins continue a road trip on Monday night in Pittsburgh, playing as a significant favorite. Check the latest line on the LIVE ODDS page.
Florida (11-1, +11.3 units) on Friday night scored a run in the ninth to tie the Nationals and tagged on another in the 10th inning to win 3-2. On Saturday as -165 money line favorites, they tallied three runs in the ninth to again tie the score and crossed home plate three times in the 11th to secure 9-6 come from behind win. Yesterday, down 4-3 with three outs left, the Marlins scored four times and came away with series sweep and extended winning streak to seven games.
Manager Manny Acta maintains a positive attitude with his club and they are 6-0 on the road and have four wins trailing late in games on the season. Among the early keys are clutch base-hits from bench performers, boasting seven hits in 15 at bats (.438 BA). Alfredo Amezaga is 2-for-2 and Ross Gload is 3-for-5, accounting for most of the success. Another aspect has been shutdown bullpen. From the sixth inning to completion of each game versus the Nats, the Marlins relievers allowed one run in 15 innings when it mattered most.
To start a new week, Florida takes this amazing road show to Pittsburgh (6-6, +1.00) and they are 17-8 after three or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. The Pirates, like many of the reported bottom-feeders have played better to this point of the early season and are fresh of series win over Atlanta. Pittsburgh has been competitive thanks to pitching. Sunday's 11-1 loss was just the third contest they had allowed more than five runs this year. Dating back to last season, the Bucs are 7-1 off a defeat.
Florida has a vast collection of young starters, with Andrew Miller (0-0, 6.43 ERA) making his second straight start. The 23-year old left-hander has a nice and easy throwing motion, what he has not been able to harness is across the body delivery, which has made it hard for him to throw strikes consistently. Florida has won just one of his last five road starts.
Pittsburgh counters with Ross Ohlendorf (0-2, 4.91), who is 0-5 with a 5.88 ERA in seven career starts. The 26-year old former Yankee farm-hand has a sinking fastball that has not missed many bats, conceding 15 hits in 11 innings, totaling six runs.
The oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com see nothing fishy about Florida and have them as -116 money line favorites with total of Un9.5. The Marlins are 28-13 (+24.1 Units) against the ML on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 since the beginning of last season and are 17-5 OVER as visitors after two or more straight Overs. This type of contest has not been a great fit for Pittsburgh, who is 14-40 having won two of their last three games and is 24-13 OVER in April.
This matchup begins at 7:05 Eastern on the Sun Network and Fox Sports Pittsburgh, with the teams having split last six meetings in the Steel City.
StatFox Power Line - Florida -150
Betting on Baseball Urban Legend2008-07-04One of the many great aspects of wagering is the amount of choices available to those who choose to partake in this endeavor. While most prefer to play side action, many are more comfortable studying totals, devaluing risk by being able to pay reduced juice or find favorable numbers, betting against public perception of adjusted figures. One of the urban legends still floating around in betting baseball totals is to Play Under when the oddsmakers set the numbers low and or when two aces of any major league teams are facing one another.
Never one to take something at face value, decided to dig into these perceived notions and see what we find in 2008. Like always, certain elements follow certain situations. For example, ballparks will have a large influence on totals wagering, because of size or conditions. San Diego, Los Angeles and Texas immediately come to mind for their traits. Teams that hit poorly or feature robust lineups, will tend to be on either end of the spectrum, like a Washington or the Cubs as this year’s clubs. Lastly, top line pitchers will heavily influence totals; names like Brandon Webb, Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, John Lackey and Roy Halladay, are top of the mind hurlers for linemakers.
For this exercise, we looked only at how home performed when the total was 8 or less. We also followed the hybrid versions of numbers, meaning 8Under, 8Even and 8Over for example. The only caveats were for the Dodgers, we eliminated any games supposed aces Brad Penny and Derrick Lowe didn’t pitched at home and the was true also for San Diego, using just only games Jake Peavy and Chris Young pitched in downtown San Diego. Everything else was fair game.
Seeing this information had not manifested itself on the internet, it was really not shocking to find out all totals at 8 or less were 102-94-6 Under, 52 percent. Hardly revolutionary and mildly compelling. Here is the break down by numbers where we can start to find value.
The number 8 – 57- 50-6 Over
The number 7.5 – 36-29 Under
The number 7 – 13-6 Under
The number 6.5 – 3-2 Under
It is evident, reviewing these numbers, 7.5 or less is your best bet with Under hitting 58.4 percent, with 52-37. This does perpetuate the common belief of betting below the oddsmakers number and is a descent reason to wager on these contests, nevertheless, not a sole reason by itself as you will see below. This is a noteworthy figure, but hardly the only one found.
The number 7.5 Under figured to be a large number and was, with 49 instances. Playing Under this number produced 27 winners, for a nice 55.1 winning percentage. The downfall is the juice associated with this sum, as many sportsbooks now try to hang on to numbers and are unafraid to post up to a -135. The juice eats away at winning percentage, leaving almost no profit. What was interesting was further breakdowns. Home favorites at Un7.5 are 10-4, for +4.45 units. What did catch us off-guard was the differential in leagues. The National League, one would assume would have a greater propensity to go under this total. Instead, we found the American League was 14-6 Under with total set at Un7.5.
The most popular number to arise was Under 8. This ended up being split at 29-29-5, providing almost nothing for bettors. Here we found home teams were 41-22, a becoming 65 percent. In this case, profit was available on two fronts, home favorites were 30-15, +10.6, with the better value on the home dog at this price with 11-7 record, +5.2 units.
When the count was steady at 8, it was more boring than watching a Washington and San Diego contest. The record was 16-15-1 Over, with home teams 14-18. One potential wager to consider is favorites lost -4.85 units, with 9-11 record.
One gem that came to the surface was Over 8 wagers. This turns out to be a multi-pronged winner to think about. To date, all Ov8 bets are 12-6-1 Over, offering a meaningful profit on such a few wagers. Home teams at this tally have been even better at 13-6, for +6.1 units and home underdogs have cashed all three times they have bubbled up.
[…..especially tantalizing is the Un7, with a 6-1 Under mark and even more delicious record for the road team at 6-1 for +6.2 units.]
As shown previously, with the total at 7 or less, the Under is 16-8, making betting contemplation is a worthy idea. Visitors have won 14 of these 24 encounters. What is especially tantalizing is the Un7, with a 6-1 Under mark and even more delicious record for the road team at 6-1 for +6.2 units.
While the general belief of this angle is somewhat overblown, it has merit. The real opportunities lie in other areas, nuggets of gold are just waiting to be picked up. Take a frequent look at Sportsbook.com’s Betting Trends to stay on top of the information.
