Baseball over under
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It’s Never Too Early for World Series Predictions
The end of July unofficially signals the beginning of phase two of the Major League Baseball season. With the contenders definitively pulling away from the pretenders in each division, the playoff picture is starting to take shape, and baseball betting is watching.
The next few months will make or break each team’s chances, as history as proven that World Series winners are made in August and September—not born in April. (A perfect example would be the shocking 2007 World Series between the Red Sox and the Rockies, who amounted to virtually nothing for the first four months of the season, but got hot at the right time and rode their way to a World Series.)
Here’s a preview of what to expect come mid-October, with in terms of the four playoff teams from each league and a World Series winner.
AL West: Texas Rangers. Historically, the Rangers have had good starts to the season in recent years, but have tapered off and missed the playoffs altogether. This year is special for the Rangers, who have finally added some much-needed pitching in the form of Cliff Lee. With their batters hitting as well as they have, they should hold off an aging Angels team to secure a win in the AL West. The line at www.sportsbook.com agrees, as the Texas Rangers are heavy favorites right now at -10000.
AL Central: Chicago White Sox. With the possible addition of Edwin Jackson, who threw a no-hitter earlier this year, the ChiSox would have the most well-rounded team in a weaker-than-usual AL Central. This isn’t a team that is going to scare many people, but they will beat the Twins for a playoff spot.
AL East: New York Yankees. Defense wins championships, and the Yanks have the best starting pitching in the division and have been consistent all season long. They have enough weapons to beat out the Rays down the stretch, if they can manage a stretch without two of their best starters.
AL Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa’s lineup is just more intimidating than the Red Sox’s at this point, and they’ve proven they can win with this lineup, as seen in 2008.
NL West: San Francisco Giants. The Giants are playing like a World Series contender right now. Led by seemingly superhuman rookie Buster Posey and a downright filthy pitching staff, it’s only a matter of time before they catch up to the Padres, who have slowed their pace since getting out to a huge early season lead.
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals. This is going to be a closer race than many people expect, but the Reds’ pitching staff just isn’t up to the task of fighting off Pujols and his experienced crew. I expect the Cards to gain control and not let go next time these two teams match up. The line at www.sportsbook.com has the Cardinals as the favorite at -150 currently.
NL East: Philadelphia Phillies. The Phils are starting to hit, and that spells trouble for their division rivals, given the addition of Roy Oswalt to the city of brotherly love. Without question, this is the best rotation in baseball, and if Chase Utley is a shadow of his former self when he returns from injury, this is still the team to beat.
NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves. This is a really well-balanced lineup with a good mix of experience and youth playing under manager Bobby Cox for his final season. A brutal wild card race is in store for a number of teams, but I see Atlanta coming out on top.
ALDS: Yankees top the White Sox in a sweep. Beyond Mark Buehrle, there’s nothing that the White Sox can throw out there that the Yankees can’t handle. This should be an easy week for New York.
ALDS: Texas over Tampa in seven. I predict this will be the most interesting playoff series we’ll see, so play close attention if and when it comes up. These are two dynamic teams with clear strengths all over the field. In the end, I give it to the team that has been the most aggressive in going out and getting a top-level starter for the playoff push.
NLDS: Philadelphia over St. Louis in six. The Cardinals have a lot of depth at the plate, but it’s all about starting pitching and timely hitting in the playoffs, and that describes Philadelphia to a T.
NLDS: San Francisco over Atlanta in five. The young guns take on the old guard in this one, and I have a sneaking suspicion that this series will signal the beginning of a long run for the Giants as a top contender in the National League. There’s just enough experience there to make me believe that their superior starters will be able to focus and pull through.
ALCS: New York bests the Rangers in five. You have to hand it to the “evil empire,” they know what they’re doing. The addition of Lance Berkman gives them depth that they haven’t had in a while—and they won the World Series last year.
NLCS: Philadelphia over San Francisco in six. There’s nothing quite like the same championship twice in a row, and it hasn’t happened in baseball since 1977-78. The experience that the Phillies have is just too much to overlook, especially with the addition of another World Series pitcher is Oswalt.
World Series. Philadelphia over New York in six. Put simply, the Phillies are the team getting hot and getting better at the right time of year. Despite their early season struggles, this team has proven that they are worth discussing as a true dynasty in a league that hasn’t produced more than a handful in the past 50 years. If I’m placing a bet today, Philadelphia has my money to win their second championship in three seasons.
Focus on powerful MLB betting system2010-06-23
Despite squaring off against Tigers’ ace Justin Verlander on Tuesday, the Mets erupted for 14 runs on 16 hits. The damage wasn’t all done on Verlander though, as the Detroit bullpen yielded nine of the runs itself. Because of that latter fact, New York comes into Wednesday’s contest backed by a powerful FoxSheets Super Situation. The host Mets are favorites of just -115 according to Sportsbook.com, but that price could escalate if bettors get their hands on this system.
The angle in focus is based squarely upon the recent performance of the bullpens of both teams. It reads as follows:
Play Against - Road teams (DETROIT) - after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs against opponent with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games. (64-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.3%, +39.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -115.7
The average score in these games was: Team 5.2, Opponent 3.7 (Average run differential = +1.4)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0, +3.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-10, +17.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (148-92, +25.6 units).
As you can see, this system is already 3-0 for 2010, producing 3.1 units of profit in just three games. Over the last five seasons, the return on investment had you wagered every qualifying game would have been an astronomical 46.7%. In these days of economic uncertainty, how many fund managers would kill for a return like that!
Wednesday’s starting pitcher matchup shows the Tigers going with Jeremy Bonderman vs. the Mets’ R.A. Dickey.
Dickey (5-0, 2.82 ERA), recalled from Triple-A Buffalo on May 19, has been a major surprise for New York, and he'll take the mound looking to become the first starter to win his first six decisions with the club.
The 35-year-old knuckleballer is also vying to become the first Met to win six starts in a row since Mike Pelfrey did it from June 16-July 13, 2008.
The Mets are second in the NL East, 1 1/2 games behind first-place Atlanta.
Dickey is 2-2 with a 4.69 ERA in 12 games - five starts - versus the Tigers. He lost his last appearance against them July 3, giving up four runs and nine hits in three innings of relief for Minnesota.
The Tigers have dropped nine of 12 on the road, and the staff has a 6.36 ERA in that stretch.
Bonderman (3-4, 4.06) is 1-2 with a 6.03 ERA in six road starts, but comes off a solid outing and will now try to win a second consecutive start for the first time since a personal eight-game winning streak from April 30-June 20, 2007.
Bonderman is 1-1 with a 7.36 ERA in two starts against the Mets
The StatFox Power Line shows the Mets should be a favorite of -131, perhaps indicating a slight under-pricing by Sportsbook.com. For those interested in the total, that number shows OV8.5 +105.
Starting time for Wednesday’s game is set for 7:10 PM ET.
MLB: Blue Jays hot but so is system they are facing2010-05-06
The Toronto Blue Jays were thought to be a lock to be in the basement of the American League East, instead they are 16-13 (+5.6 units) and in third place, ahead of the Boston Red Sox at this juncture. On Thursday, they’ll be up against a powerful betting system, and of course, the Chicago White Sox.
The White Sox started the season with what many baseball experts thought was the best four starting pitchers in the junior circuit. Thus far only one of them has pitched up to capabilities and instead of being Central Division contender, the White Sox are 12-16 (-6) and a full seven games behind front-running Minnesota.
Toronto’s confounding start is because of arms, not necessarily bats in 2010. The Blue Jays are tied with Tampa Bay for the most quality starts at 18 in the AL and collectively the entire staff has been mowing down opposing batters with league-leading 230 strikeouts.
Tonight’s starter Dana Eveland (2-1, 4.77 ERA, 1.588 WHIP) is not a pitcher who blows batter’s away (13 K’s in 28.1 innings), however he doesn’t make the big mistake and has only given up one home run every 14 innings roughly this year.
Toronto’s team batting average in 12th at .238, however they are fifth in run scored thanks to leading the AL with 43 home runs, led by Vernon Wells at eight.
Every Chicago starter has an ERA over five except for John Danks (3-0, 1.85, 1.000), who has been the one pillar of strength on the South Side.
The left-hander has had to be sharp, with the Pale Hose ninth in runs score in the AL at 4.2 and last in hitting with pitiful .229 average. The Sox are below the Mendoza Line with runners in scoring position (.199), which is last in the majors.
Sportsbook.com views the pitching matchup as quite a disparity, with Chicago a -190 money line favorite. This series opener also falls into quite a winning system:
Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who have team batting average of .260 or less, against a good AL starting pitcher with ERA of 4.20 or less, with their hurler giving up one or fewer home runs every two starts.
Chicago already comes into this game feeling good after crushing Kansas City 9-2 last night and is 21-6 at home after scoring nine runs or more. Since 1997, today’s system is 86-19, 81.9 percent and has been particularly potent the last three years at a remarkable 21-2. Over the years this system also lends itself to run line potential, with the favorite winning by 2.2 runs per contest in the 105 games played.
It is true the Blue Jays have won four in a row, but they are going to lose eventually and tonight looks like it might be that time.
Texas trying to buck the system in New York2009-08-26
There had been a great deal of speculation the Texas Rangers were perfectly positioned to steal a game from the New York Yankees in the opener on forums and chat sites catering to sports wagering talk on Tuesday. The belief was from underdog and value players, the Yankees would be flat after a big series win in Boston and Joba Chamberlain had not been very effective of late, making Texas a delicious choice at +185 on the money line. (Be sure to check the latest information on all the MLB games by visiting the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages.)
New York looked anything but flat taking a 4-0 lead in the bottom of the first inning. This Texas team is a little different from the past, not wilting under the heat and humidity the Lone Star State brings this time of year and they kept battling, earning a 10-5 lead and almost gave it away, with New York scoring four runs in the bottom of the ninth, to come up just short at 10-9.
High scoring games are nothing new at the new Yankees Stadium, where the average score totals 10.3 runs per game. The Rangers will attempt to win the series tonight on ESPN2 at 7:05 Eastern and possibly further close the gap in the AL West with Los Angeles with another victory.
Texas will have New York’s full attention, as the Yankees lost for just the 19th time in 60 games (best in baseball) in the Bronx this season. The Rangers will be in virtually the same exact position as last night, being +185 underdogs according to Sportsbook.com.
Texas is feeling spry after defeating the Yanks and will send 22-year-old left-hander Derek Holland (7-7, 4.72 ERA) to the mound. The rookie will face an intimidating New York lineup that punishes left-hand pitchers, sporting a 28-14 record and he’s been rocked for eight runs in 6 1/3 innings against the Bronx Bombers this season. Holland has found a groove in last three starts, with 3-0 record and 1.29 ERA; expect the Yankees to test him.
Andy Pettitte (10-6, 4.25) will take the ball for Joe Girardi’s club, seeking a third straight win. Pettitte and his teammates will go after a fifth consecutive triumph when he’s been the starter. Though the veteran left-hander did not have his best stuff last Friday against Boston in wild 20-11 win (seven runs allowed in five innings), prior to that he had 2.61 ERA in last five starts.
By all appearances Texas should have another shot as big underdog, until this sobering system is unveiled.
Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 after allowing nine runs or more against opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more.
This system is a proven winner and consistent. Since 1997, the record is 184-48, 79.3 percent and over the last five years has been equally as steady with 64-17 (79 percent) mark. What makes this system work is teams involved in high scoring affairs and positioned as large underdogs typically don’t respond well in next contest and this is acknowledged with teams like Texas losing by 2.5 runs per game.
Can Texas win tonight, sure, is it a good idea to place a wager on them, after reading to this point, you decide.